The future of the mainframe
October 1, 2005 (Ovum) By Gary Barnett
In 1991 the technology writer Stewart Alsop wrote, ‘I predict that the last mainframe will be unplugged on 15 March 1996’. However, despite the predictions of client-server gurus throughout the 1990s the mainframe didn’t disappear. In 2004, the IBM mainframe celebrated its 40th birthday, and in July 2005 IBM unveiled its latest offering, the z9, the result of over $1 billion of investment in R&D. The mainframe isn’t going to disappear at any time in the next decade at least. However, the mainframe environment is set to change significantly over the next five years, with the number of small mainframes seeing a significant decline, while the number of larger mainframes grows slowly, but steadily.
This report presents our predictions for the mainframe; in which we forecast that over the next five years the number of individual machines will fall, but the total number of deployed MIPS will continue to rise.
IBM 




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